Now batting, the catcher, Gerald Laird

The Tigers filled the first of their holes this offseason with the acquisition of C Gerald Laird from the Texas Rangers in exchange for two Minor League pitchers. Laird should be the main catcher, with Dusty Ryan as his backup, and I expect he'll catch about 120 games for the Tigers in 2009.

Guillermo Moscoso is the more important of the two Minor Leaguers, as he finished the year in AA this past season and has had solid stats as he has risen through the Tigers' farm system. Although it looks like he could be a decent Major League pitcher eventually, he is already 25 years old and had just made it up to AA for the first time at the end of this season, so I feel that alone made him relatively expendable.

Carlos Melo is the dark horse of the trade, as he is only 17 years old and pitched for the Tigers' Dominican Summer League team in 2008. His ERA was unimpressive, but he had good strikeout numbers and didn't walk many batters for a youngster, so I wouldn't be surprised to see his ERA improve at his next stop. Even so, he probably won't be ready for the Majors for at least another 3-4 years.

The real question for Tigers' fan is what to expect from Laird. After taking a glance at his career stats, I've decided that is quite a difficult question to answer.

Let's start with the easier half of the equation: defense. Laird appears to be in between Ivan Rodriguez and Brandon Inge. He has thrown out 37.8% of attempted base stealers in his Major League career (Rodriguez: 46.6%, Inge: 36.3%) and averages 1 passed ball every 12.7 games (Rodriguez: 18.9, Inge: 9.6). As was true with Rodriguez and Inge catching, I doubt many runners will be attempting to steal versus Justin Verlander or Kenny Rogers, should he decide not to retire, with Laird catching. While I don't know anything about his ability to call a game, these peripheral stats make me feel fairly comfortable with his defensive ability.

Predicting Laird's offensive production is much more challenging. His yearly batting averages have been as low as .224 and as high as .296 over his big league career, and his career average is .255. The .296 average came in only 78 games in 2006, and I highly doubt that he would be able to keep that up for 120 games, especially considering that one of his .224 seasons was his lone 120 game campaign (2007).

A closer look at his monthly splits further backs up this reasoning: Laird's career average from March - July is .283, while from August - October his average is just .213. All that being said, Jim Leyland has always been very smart in resting his catchers, so I don't expect Laird to hit .224 again in 2009, even if he plays 120 games.

Using the stats from his best minor league season (2005) and a Minor League Equvalency (MLE) calculator, a pretty spiffy tool for those of us who are stat geeks, I estimated a "peak" 120 game stat line in Detroit for Laird:

Laird - Peak 120 game stat line (MLE based on 2005 Minor League stats)

AVG	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBA	SLG
.263	463	65	121	16	5	21	70	33	106	16	3	.321	.455

For comparison, an average 120 games from Laird in the Majors:

Laird - Average 120 game stat line (based on Major League career stats)

AVG	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBA	SLG
.255	393	59	100	23	1	8	43	27	87	4	2	.306	.383

From looking at these stats, it seems that Laird showed some decent pop (and speed) potential in the minors that really hasn't been seen during his big league career. Other than those categories, however, the rest of the stats have little disparity between the predicted peak and the actual average. Based on this, it's fair to say that Laird's Major League performance has largely been at or near his peak level. Given that he's only 29 years old, it should be safe to assume he'll continue to post similar "peak" numbers for at least a few more years.

Conveniently, if you take the .283/.213 monthly batting splits I referenced above and weight them appropriately for a six month season, you project an average of .260, which is right in line with the projected peak and actual batting averages we just calculated Therefore, the .255 - low .260's is a safe range to expect for 2009.

As far as his power numbers, it appears that leaving Rangers Ballpark shouldn't hurt him in this regard, as his career home/road power splits are relatively equal. Unfortunately, however, he has 0 career HR in 48 AB's at Comerica Park. Without actually having seen him play, from his stats, I'd guess that Laird is more of a line drive/gap hitter that will thrive in Comerica. I don't expect more than 10-12 HR's, although 30 2B's is probably possible.

As far as speed, I don't expect him to tap the potential he showed in the Minors. Laird's Major League career high in steals is 6, and even Ivan Rodriguez never had more than 8 in any season in Detroit, a number Pudge had topped four times in his career prior to joining the Tigers. In my opinion, Leyland simply doesn't run much (or enough). The real variable I see in Laird's potential running game is the order in which Laird, Inge, and Everett/Santiago hit at the bottom of the Tigers order. If Everett/Santiago immediately follow Laird, I could see the potential to utilize his speed a bit in some hit and run situations. If Inge, however, bats immediately behind Laird, the hit and run becomes less likely due to Inge's high strikeout numbers and the extra-base threat in Curtis Granderson immediately following at the top of the order. Either way, it shouldn't drastically change the number of steals he ends up with. Personally, if I were Leyland, I'd probably hit Inge 7th (due to his power/extra base potential), Laird 8th, and Santiago/Everett 9th.

Additional Laird tidbits I dug up that are worth noting:

-Laird's career average (in 13 games) at Comerica Park is .271, while his career average at his former home ballpark, Rangers Ballpark, is just .244. In fact, his career average at all locations other than Rangers Ballpark is .266.

-Laird's career average against AL Central teams (excluding Detroit) is .303, while his his career
average against AL West teams is just .228.

-Laird has 4 HR's in 122 AB (1 HR/30.5 AB) in AL Central ballparks (excluding Comerica), as opposed to 21 HR in 1103 AB (1 HR/52.5 AB) in all other ballparks. He'll get an extra 20 or so games in these AL Central ballparks this year.

-Laird has a career .290 AVG vs. LHP but only a .240 AVG vs. RHP.

-Laird owns a .320 AVG in day games but only a .234 AVG in night games. Will this make it harder for Leyland to give him the standard day game off after a night game that most catchers get? Perhaps Ryan can play the night game before a day game, leaving Laird fresh for the day game?

-Laird has a .313 AVG on turf but only .250 AVG on grass.


Well, that's about all I've got on Laird...and based on how long it took to put this post together, I doubt you'll be seeing anything else this in depth from me in the future.

Perhaps I should go with a bit lighter subject matter next time...any suggestions?