As a law student and a traditional baseball fan, I find this appalling for many obvious reasons:
http://abovethelaw.com/2010/02/thomas_m_cooley_law_school_buy.php
At least its not named after [pick your favorite, or perhaps your least favorite, bank]. Oh wait, (with the exception of Comerica, whom I shall never forgive for buying the naming rights to now Comerica Park, and the fact that I disapprove of corporate naming of stadiums in general), that would actually be much better.
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
If at first you don't succeed...
Last December (2008) I reviewed the Tigers' trade for Gerald Laird and offered some projections for his 2009 season. So, for fun, let's take a look back and see how I did.
1. Playing Time
Projection: 120 G ("Jim Leyland has always been very smart in resting his catchers")
Actual: 135 G
Result: Leyland played Laird more than I expected (and in the opinion of many, drastically overplayed him).
2. Defense
Projection: Somewhere in between Pudge (46.6%, 1 PB/18.9 G) and Inge (36.3%, 1 PB/9.6 G) throwing out runners and allowing passed balls. Not many attempted steals with Laird catching and Verlander pitching.
Actual: 41.6%, 1 PB/15 G, 23 steals attempted against the Verlander/Laird combination in 209 innings.
Result: Dead on for CS% and PB/G. 1 steal attempt/9+ innings certainly seems to qualify as "not many."
3. Batting
Projection: .255 - low .260's, 30 2B, 10-12 HR ("I don't expect Laird to hit .224 again in 2009, even if he plays 120 games")
Actual: .225, 23 2B, 4 HR
Result: Not even close. (Ironically, after 120 of the 135 games he played, Laird was hitting exactly .224.)
4. Other
While I didn't make any other projections for Laird's 2009 season, I did note several other statistical trends from Laird's past. Let's see if those trends continued:
A) Pre-2009: Career average (in 13 games) at Comerica Park: .271. Career average at former home ballpark, Rangers Ballpark: .244. Career average at all locations other than Rangers Ballpark: .266.
2009 - Comerica Park: .260. Rangers Ballpark: .125 (8 AB). All but Rangers Ballpark: .227.
B) Pre-2009: Career average against AL Central (excluding Detroit): .303. Career average against AL West teams: .228.
2009 - AL Central: .201. AL West: .253.
C) Pre-2009: 4 HR's in 122 AB (1 HR/30.5 AB) in AL Central ballparks (excluding Comerica). 21 HR in 1103 AB (1 HR/52.5 AB) in all other ballparks.
2009 - AL Central (excluding Comerica): 3 HR in 98 AB (1 HR/32.7 AB). All other ballparks (including Comerica): 1 HR in 315 AB.
D) Pre-2009: Career: .290 AVG vs. LHP. 240 AVG vs. RHP.
2009 - LHP: .248. RHP: .218.
E) Pre-2009: .320 AVG in day games. .234 AVG in night games.
2009 - Day: .255. Night: .210.
F) Pre-2009: .313 AVG on turf. .250 AVG on grass.
2009 - Turf: .167. Grass: .233.
Note: Putting all of these trends together tells us that for ideal stats (excepting power) Laird should primarily play day games in Comerica Park against non-divisional opponents featuring a LHP. Ok, so maybe that's a bit far-fetched, as that would only amount to 5-7 games/season. To be more realistic, let's put it a different way: those are 5-7 games he definitely should play.
5. Assessment
Seems as though I did pretty well predicting Laird's defensive stats and noting some statistical trends that continued into 2009, but did pretty poorly predicting his overall offensive stats.
6. Other Side of the Trade
Here's are my notes from the same post regarding the players the Tigers traded for Laird, as well as a 2009 update on each of them:
Original post: Guillermo Moscoso is the more important of the two Minor Leaguers, as he finished the year in AA this past season and has had solid stats as he has risen through the Tigers' farm system. Although it looks like he could be a decent Major League pitcher eventually, he is already 25 years old and had just made it up to AA for the first time at the end of this season, so I feel that alone made him relatively expendable.
Post-2009 update: Moscoso posted a 3.12 ERA between AA and AAA, with nearly 1 K/IP. He also appears in 10 games for the Rangers, posting a 3.21 ERA, again with nearly 1 K/IP. Moscoso looks like he could be an important piece of the Rangers bullpen over the few seasons if he continues to progress. The Tigers have plenty of young relief pitching prospects, however, so I doubt they'll miss him.
Original post: Carlos Melo is the dark horse of the trade, as he is only 17 years old and pitched for the Tigers' Dominican Summer League team in 2008. His ERA was unimpressive, but he had good strikeout numbers and didn't walk many batters for a youngster, so I wouldn't be surprised to see his ERA improve at his next stop. Even so, he probably won't be ready for the Majors for at least another 3-4 years.
Post-2009 update: Melo pitched for the Rangers Rookie league team in 2009, and to my surprise, his ERA rose nearly 40%, his walks increased about 20%, and his strikeouts dropped about 25%. Obviously, as Melo is only 18, it is still far too early to make any determinations about this piece of the trade. After his "regression" this season, my guess on his ETA in the Majors is late-2013 at the earliest.
Well, that's about it for now...time for some Contracts and Con Law homework!
1. Playing Time
Projection: 120 G ("Jim Leyland has always been very smart in resting his catchers")
Actual: 135 G
Result: Leyland played Laird more than I expected (and in the opinion of many, drastically overplayed him).
2. Defense
Projection: Somewhere in between Pudge (46.6%, 1 PB/18.9 G) and Inge (36.3%, 1 PB/9.6 G) throwing out runners and allowing passed balls. Not many attempted steals with Laird catching and Verlander pitching.
Actual: 41.6%, 1 PB/15 G, 23 steals attempted against the Verlander/Laird combination in 209 innings.
Result: Dead on for CS% and PB/G. 1 steal attempt/9+ innings certainly seems to qualify as "not many."
3. Batting
Projection: .255 - low .260's, 30 2B, 10-12 HR ("I don't expect Laird to hit .224 again in 2009, even if he plays 120 games")
Actual: .225, 23 2B, 4 HR
Result: Not even close. (Ironically, after 120 of the 135 games he played, Laird was hitting exactly .224.)
4. Other
While I didn't make any other projections for Laird's 2009 season, I did note several other statistical trends from Laird's past. Let's see if those trends continued:
A) Pre-2009: Career average (in 13 games) at Comerica Park: .271. Career average at former home ballpark, Rangers Ballpark: .244. Career average at all locations other than Rangers Ballpark: .266.
2009 - Comerica Park: .260. Rangers Ballpark: .125 (8 AB). All but Rangers Ballpark: .227.
B) Pre-2009: Career average against AL Central (excluding Detroit): .303. Career average against AL West teams: .228.
2009 - AL Central: .201. AL West: .253.
C) Pre-2009: 4 HR's in 122 AB (1 HR/30.5 AB) in AL Central ballparks (excluding Comerica). 21 HR in 1103 AB (1 HR/52.5 AB) in all other ballparks.
2009 - AL Central (excluding Comerica): 3 HR in 98 AB (1 HR/32.7 AB). All other ballparks (including Comerica): 1 HR in 315 AB.
D) Pre-2009: Career: .290 AVG vs. LHP. 240 AVG vs. RHP.
2009 - LHP: .248. RHP: .218.
E) Pre-2009: .320 AVG in day games. .234 AVG in night games.
2009 - Day: .255. Night: .210.
F) Pre-2009: .313 AVG on turf. .250 AVG on grass.
2009 - Turf: .167. Grass: .233.
Note: Putting all of these trends together tells us that for ideal stats (excepting power) Laird should primarily play day games in Comerica Park against non-divisional opponents featuring a LHP. Ok, so maybe that's a bit far-fetched, as that would only amount to 5-7 games/season. To be more realistic, let's put it a different way: those are 5-7 games he definitely should play.
5. Assessment
Seems as though I did pretty well predicting Laird's defensive stats and noting some statistical trends that continued into 2009, but did pretty poorly predicting his overall offensive stats.
6. Other Side of the Trade
Here's are my notes from the same post regarding the players the Tigers traded for Laird, as well as a 2009 update on each of them:
Original post: Guillermo Moscoso is the more important of the two Minor Leaguers, as he finished the year in AA this past season and has had solid stats as he has risen through the Tigers' farm system. Although it looks like he could be a decent Major League pitcher eventually, he is already 25 years old and had just made it up to AA for the first time at the end of this season, so I feel that alone made him relatively expendable.
Post-2009 update: Moscoso posted a 3.12 ERA between AA and AAA, with nearly 1 K/IP. He also appears in 10 games for the Rangers, posting a 3.21 ERA, again with nearly 1 K/IP. Moscoso looks like he could be an important piece of the Rangers bullpen over the few seasons if he continues to progress. The Tigers have plenty of young relief pitching prospects, however, so I doubt they'll miss him.
Original post: Carlos Melo is the dark horse of the trade, as he is only 17 years old and pitched for the Tigers' Dominican Summer League team in 2008. His ERA was unimpressive, but he had good strikeout numbers and didn't walk many batters for a youngster, so I wouldn't be surprised to see his ERA improve at his next stop. Even so, he probably won't be ready for the Majors for at least another 3-4 years.
Post-2009 update: Melo pitched for the Rangers Rookie league team in 2009, and to my surprise, his ERA rose nearly 40%, his walks increased about 20%, and his strikeouts dropped about 25%. Obviously, as Melo is only 18, it is still far too early to make any determinations about this piece of the trade. After his "regression" this season, my guess on his ETA in the Majors is late-2013 at the earliest.
Well, that's about it for now...time for some Contracts and Con Law homework!
Friday, July 24, 2009
Why Did I Think That Was A Good Idea?
I had the (mis)fortune of being in attendance at the Cardinals/Nationals game last night...yes, the one with two rain delays totaling two hours and forty-five minutes that finally was called at 11:40pm after completing only six innings. The evening was capped off by arriving home at 1:40am after Metro (which had stayed open late special to accommodate the fans) somehow managed to forget to leave a train at L'Enfant Plaza for those fans transferring to the Blue/Orange lines and had to send one back down the line to retrieve us.
Looking back, I wonder what I was thinking on Wednesday evening when I purchased my ticket for the game despite the forecast of rain for Thursday (note: at least unlike many of the fans, I didn't have tickets to the original version of this game, which was rained out back in May). The simple answer to that is the Cardinals were one of four major league teams I had never seen play (now only three: the Diamondbacks, Marlins, and Dodgers).
Random Observations/Highlights from the evening:
1) Albert Pujols didn't play. (Post-season update: this was one of only 2 games all season in which Pujols didn't play.)
2) Adam Dunn still can't field.
3) The Nationals struck out looking so many times (4, including 3 with runners in scoring position and less than 2 outs) I thought I was watching a little league team bat, not professionals. (And yet I insist, despite their record, that this Nationals team is actually the best one of the three years I've lived in the area...)
4) I hate intentional walks. For example: Top of the 4th, Cardinals up by 2 and threatening to add more, with runners on 2nd and 3rd and 1 out. Their #8 batter was up, and the Nats intentionally walked him to load the bases and pitch to the #9 batter, the pitcher. The pitcher fouled out for the second out of the inning, but then the leadoff batter walked, forcing in a run. Why in the world would you walk the #8 batter with one out, all but assuring that you'll face the leadoff hitter with runners on base later in the inning? I realize the idea is to get the pitcher to hit into a double play, but, I entirely disagree with this strategy...chances are the guy was hitting 8th for a reason, with that reason being that he's NOT a dangerous hitter and should NEVER be walked intentionally.
5) Major kudos to the Nationals grounds crew. They still don't know how to dump the water off the tarp without creating a huge puddle in shallow RF (in fair territory nonetheless, although I think this might actually be an architectural/engineering problem with the stadium- more on this below), but they worked very hard after both delays to make the field playable.
6) 1,000 boos (from the roughly 1,000 remaining fans) for the umpires for canceling the remainder of the game at 11:40pm AFTER the grounds crew had spent somewhere between forty-five minutes to an hour working on the field and finally had the infield in playable condition again. Seriously?
7) When it's 12:30am, and the system was supposed to have closed at 12:00 but stayed open special for the event you were at, and you ask the Metro employee on the platform if a train is coming and they answer "no," you know that's a bad sign...
8) Nationals Park has some serious issue with rain drainage. As mentioned above, the grounds crew dumps the tarp in fair territory in shallow rightfield, likely because that's where the drain is (based on the puddles along the stands during the delays last night, it's definitely not in foul territory). They do their best to spread the water out and after dumping it there, but in June when I sat through a rain delay in a game against the Reds, you could still see (standing) water splashing all over when the rightfielder charged a ball several innings later. Wouldn't having the drains in foul territory and not dumping the whole tarp onto the field of play make more sense? Additionally, the coverage of the concourse for the 3rd and 4th decks is an absolute joke during a rain storm. Not only is it not all the way covered (there are large gaps between certain sections), but a large portion of the covered section leaks incessantly, splattering roughly half the concourse with water. Needless to say, squeezing two decks full of people into half a concourse is not an ideal situation. These are two major, unacceptable design flaws that the Nationals should fix as soon as possible.
All in all, a very long, interesting evening to say the least.
Looking back, I wonder what I was thinking on Wednesday evening when I purchased my ticket for the game despite the forecast of rain for Thursday (note: at least unlike many of the fans, I didn't have tickets to the original version of this game, which was rained out back in May). The simple answer to that is the Cardinals were one of four major league teams I had never seen play (now only three: the Diamondbacks, Marlins, and Dodgers).
Random Observations/Highlights from the evening:
1) Albert Pujols didn't play. (Post-season update: this was one of only 2 games all season in which Pujols didn't play.)
2) Adam Dunn still can't field.
3) The Nationals struck out looking so many times (4, including 3 with runners in scoring position and less than 2 outs) I thought I was watching a little league team bat, not professionals. (And yet I insist, despite their record, that this Nationals team is actually the best one of the three years I've lived in the area...)
4) I hate intentional walks. For example: Top of the 4th, Cardinals up by 2 and threatening to add more, with runners on 2nd and 3rd and 1 out. Their #8 batter was up, and the Nats intentionally walked him to load the bases and pitch to the #9 batter, the pitcher. The pitcher fouled out for the second out of the inning, but then the leadoff batter walked, forcing in a run. Why in the world would you walk the #8 batter with one out, all but assuring that you'll face the leadoff hitter with runners on base later in the inning? I realize the idea is to get the pitcher to hit into a double play, but, I entirely disagree with this strategy...chances are the guy was hitting 8th for a reason, with that reason being that he's NOT a dangerous hitter and should NEVER be walked intentionally.
5) Major kudos to the Nationals grounds crew. They still don't know how to dump the water off the tarp without creating a huge puddle in shallow RF (in fair territory nonetheless, although I think this might actually be an architectural/engineering problem with the stadium- more on this below), but they worked very hard after both delays to make the field playable.
6) 1,000 boos (from the roughly 1,000 remaining fans) for the umpires for canceling the remainder of the game at 11:40pm AFTER the grounds crew had spent somewhere between forty-five minutes to an hour working on the field and finally had the infield in playable condition again. Seriously?
7) When it's 12:30am, and the system was supposed to have closed at 12:00 but stayed open special for the event you were at, and you ask the Metro employee on the platform if a train is coming and they answer "no," you know that's a bad sign...
8) Nationals Park has some serious issue with rain drainage. As mentioned above, the grounds crew dumps the tarp in fair territory in shallow rightfield, likely because that's where the drain is (based on the puddles along the stands during the delays last night, it's definitely not in foul territory). They do their best to spread the water out and after dumping it there, but in June when I sat through a rain delay in a game against the Reds, you could still see (standing) water splashing all over when the rightfielder charged a ball several innings later. Wouldn't having the drains in foul territory and not dumping the whole tarp onto the field of play make more sense? Additionally, the coverage of the concourse for the 3rd and 4th decks is an absolute joke during a rain storm. Not only is it not all the way covered (there are large gaps between certain sections), but a large portion of the covered section leaks incessantly, splattering roughly half the concourse with water. Needless to say, squeezing two decks full of people into half a concourse is not an ideal situation. These are two major, unacceptable design flaws that the Nationals should fix as soon as possible.
All in all, a very long, interesting evening to say the least.
Monday, April 13, 2009
Been there, done that...
Note to the 2009 Washington Nationals:
The 2008 Detroit Tigers already proved that 0-7 is not the way to start a successful season.
The 2008 Detroit Tigers already proved that 0-7 is not the way to start a successful season.
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
How to Build Confidence in Your Customers
"We expect to have all trains moving as soon as possible," said the Metrorail employee over the loudspeaker during this morning's delay. As opposed to...expecting to not have them moving ASAP? I'm glad to see they set such high expectations for themselves.
This was followed several minutes later by the announcement: "All trains are moving and will service your location shortly." This was a bit hard to believe, considering that the mechanically-challenged train and its recovery train were still in the station in which I was standing and were about to exit the station in the reverse direction of normal traffic flow.
Did I mention that I was originally on the recovery train, and that we were forced to offload so that it could rescue the mechanically-challenged train? I've heard of this happening, but this was the first time I've been offloaded from a correctly-functioning train rather than a broken one.
Also, Metro eliminated the paper transfer from rail-to-bus in early January, and yet the paper transfer machines are still in the Metro stations right where they've always been. Granted, they have a sign that says they're no longer being used, but, why not just remove the useless, obsolete equipment from the stations?
These confidence inspiring moments brought to you courtesy of Andrew's 2/3/09 morning commute.
This was followed several minutes later by the announcement: "All trains are moving and will service your location shortly." This was a bit hard to believe, considering that the mechanically-challenged train and its recovery train were still in the station in which I was standing and were about to exit the station in the reverse direction of normal traffic flow.
Did I mention that I was originally on the recovery train, and that we were forced to offload so that it could rescue the mechanically-challenged train? I've heard of this happening, but this was the first time I've been offloaded from a correctly-functioning train rather than a broken one.
Also, Metro eliminated the paper transfer from rail-to-bus in early January, and yet the paper transfer machines are still in the Metro stations right where they've always been. Granted, they have a sign that says they're no longer being used, but, why not just remove the useless, obsolete equipment from the stations?
These confidence inspiring moments brought to you courtesy of Andrew's 2/3/09 morning commute.
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
Now batting, the catcher, Gerald Laird
The Tigers filled the first of their holes this offseason with the acquisition of C Gerald Laird from the Texas Rangers in exchange for two Minor League pitchers. Laird should be the main catcher, with Dusty Ryan as his backup, and I expect he'll catch about 120 games for the Tigers in 2009.
Guillermo Moscoso is the more important of the two Minor Leaguers, as he finished the year in AA this past season and has had solid stats as he has risen through the Tigers' farm system. Although it looks like he could be a decent Major League pitcher eventually, he is already 25 years old and had just made it up to AA for the first time at the end of this season, so I feel that alone made him relatively expendable.
Carlos Melo is the dark horse of the trade, as he is only 17 years old and pitched for the Tigers' Dominican Summer League team in 2008. His ERA was unimpressive, but he had good strikeout numbers and didn't walk many batters for a youngster, so I wouldn't be surprised to see his ERA improve at his next stop. Even so, he probably won't be ready for the Majors for at least another 3-4 years.
The real question for Tigers' fan is what to expect from Laird. After taking a glance at his career stats, I've decided that is quite a difficult question to answer.
Let's start with the easier half of the equation: defense. Laird appears to be in between Ivan Rodriguez and Brandon Inge. He has thrown out 37.8% of attempted base stealers in his Major League career (Rodriguez: 46.6%, Inge: 36.3%) and averages 1 passed ball every 12.7 games (Rodriguez: 18.9, Inge: 9.6). As was true with Rodriguez and Inge catching, I doubt many runners will be attempting to steal versus Justin Verlander or Kenny Rogers, should he decide not to retire, with Laird catching. While I don't know anything about his ability to call a game, these peripheral stats make me feel fairly comfortable with his defensive ability.
Predicting Laird's offensive production is much more challenging. His yearly batting averages have been as low as .224 and as high as .296 over his big league career, and his career average is .255. The .296 average came in only 78 games in 2006, and I highly doubt that he would be able to keep that up for 120 games, especially considering that one of his .224 seasons was his lone 120 game campaign (2007).
A closer look at his monthly splits further backs up this reasoning: Laird's career average from March - July is .283, while from August - October his average is just .213. All that being said, Jim Leyland has always been very smart in resting his catchers, so I don't expect Laird to hit .224 again in 2009, even if he plays 120 games.
Using the stats from his best minor league season (2005) and a Minor League Equvalency (MLE) calculator, a pretty spiffy tool for those of us who are stat geeks, I estimated a "peak" 120 game stat line in Detroit for Laird:
Laird - Peak 120 game stat line (MLE based on 2005 Minor League stats)
For comparison, an average 120 games from Laird in the Majors:
Laird - Average 120 game stat line (based on Major League career stats)
From looking at these stats, it seems that Laird showed some decent pop (and speed) potential in the minors that really hasn't been seen during his big league career. Other than those categories, however, the rest of the stats have little disparity between the predicted peak and the actual average. Based on this, it's fair to say that Laird's Major League performance has largely been at or near his peak level. Given that he's only 29 years old, it should be safe to assume he'll continue to post similar "peak" numbers for at least a few more years.
Conveniently, if you take the .283/.213 monthly batting splits I referenced above and weight them appropriately for a six month season, you project an average of .260, which is right in line with the projected peak and actual batting averages we just calculated Therefore, the .255 - low .260's is a safe range to expect for 2009.
As far as his power numbers, it appears that leaving Rangers Ballpark shouldn't hurt him in this regard, as his career home/road power splits are relatively equal. Unfortunately, however, he has 0 career HR in 48 AB's at Comerica Park. Without actually having seen him play, from his stats, I'd guess that Laird is more of a line drive/gap hitter that will thrive in Comerica. I don't expect more than 10-12 HR's, although 30 2B's is probably possible.
As far as speed, I don't expect him to tap the potential he showed in the Minors. Laird's Major League career high in steals is 6, and even Ivan Rodriguez never had more than 8 in any season in Detroit, a number Pudge had topped four times in his career prior to joining the Tigers. In my opinion, Leyland simply doesn't run much (or enough). The real variable I see in Laird's potential running game is the order in which Laird, Inge, and Everett/Santiago hit at the bottom of the Tigers order. If Everett/Santiago immediately follow Laird, I could see the potential to utilize his speed a bit in some hit and run situations. If Inge, however, bats immediately behind Laird, the hit and run becomes less likely due to Inge's high strikeout numbers and the extra-base threat in Curtis Granderson immediately following at the top of the order. Either way, it shouldn't drastically change the number of steals he ends up with. Personally, if I were Leyland, I'd probably hit Inge 7th (due to his power/extra base potential), Laird 8th, and Santiago/Everett 9th.
Additional Laird tidbits I dug up that are worth noting:
-Laird's career average (in 13 games) at Comerica Park is .271, while his career average at his former home ballpark, Rangers Ballpark, is just .244. In fact, his career average at all locations other than Rangers Ballpark is .266.
-Laird's career average against AL Central teams (excluding Detroit) is .303, while his his career
average against AL West teams is just .228.
-Laird has 4 HR's in 122 AB (1 HR/30.5 AB) in AL Central ballparks (excluding Comerica), as opposed to 21 HR in 1103 AB (1 HR/52.5 AB) in all other ballparks. He'll get an extra 20 or so games in these AL Central ballparks this year.
-Laird has a career .290 AVG vs. LHP but only a .240 AVG vs. RHP.
-Laird owns a .320 AVG in day games but only a .234 AVG in night games. Will this make it harder for Leyland to give him the standard day game off after a night game that most catchers get? Perhaps Ryan can play the night game before a day game, leaving Laird fresh for the day game?
-Laird has a .313 AVG on turf but only .250 AVG on grass.
Well, that's about all I've got on Laird...and based on how long it took to put this post together, I doubt you'll be seeing anything else this in depth from me in the future.
Perhaps I should go with a bit lighter subject matter next time...any suggestions?
Guillermo Moscoso is the more important of the two Minor Leaguers, as he finished the year in AA this past season and has had solid stats as he has risen through the Tigers' farm system. Although it looks like he could be a decent Major League pitcher eventually, he is already 25 years old and had just made it up to AA for the first time at the end of this season, so I feel that alone made him relatively expendable.
Carlos Melo is the dark horse of the trade, as he is only 17 years old and pitched for the Tigers' Dominican Summer League team in 2008. His ERA was unimpressive, but he had good strikeout numbers and didn't walk many batters for a youngster, so I wouldn't be surprised to see his ERA improve at his next stop. Even so, he probably won't be ready for the Majors for at least another 3-4 years.
The real question for Tigers' fan is what to expect from Laird. After taking a glance at his career stats, I've decided that is quite a difficult question to answer.
Let's start with the easier half of the equation: defense. Laird appears to be in between Ivan Rodriguez and Brandon Inge. He has thrown out 37.8% of attempted base stealers in his Major League career (Rodriguez: 46.6%, Inge: 36.3%) and averages 1 passed ball every 12.7 games (Rodriguez: 18.9, Inge: 9.6). As was true with Rodriguez and Inge catching, I doubt many runners will be attempting to steal versus Justin Verlander or Kenny Rogers, should he decide not to retire, with Laird catching. While I don't know anything about his ability to call a game, these peripheral stats make me feel fairly comfortable with his defensive ability.
Predicting Laird's offensive production is much more challenging. His yearly batting averages have been as low as .224 and as high as .296 over his big league career, and his career average is .255. The .296 average came in only 78 games in 2006, and I highly doubt that he would be able to keep that up for 120 games, especially considering that one of his .224 seasons was his lone 120 game campaign (2007).
A closer look at his monthly splits further backs up this reasoning: Laird's career average from March - July is .283, while from August - October his average is just .213. All that being said, Jim Leyland has always been very smart in resting his catchers, so I don't expect Laird to hit .224 again in 2009, even if he plays 120 games.
Using the stats from his best minor league season (2005) and a Minor League Equvalency (MLE) calculator, a pretty spiffy tool for those of us who are stat geeks, I estimated a "peak" 120 game stat line in Detroit for Laird:
Laird - Peak 120 game stat line (MLE based on 2005 Minor League stats)
| AVG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | OBA | SLG |
| .263 | 463 | 65 | 121 | 16 | 5 | 21 | 70 | 33 | 106 | 16 | 3 | .321 | .455 |
For comparison, an average 120 games from Laird in the Majors:
Laird - Average 120 game stat line (based on Major League career stats)
| AVG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | OBA | SLG |
| .255 | 393 | 59 | 100 | 23 | 1 | 8 | 43 | 27 | 87 | 4 | 2 | .306 | .383 |
From looking at these stats, it seems that Laird showed some decent pop (and speed) potential in the minors that really hasn't been seen during his big league career. Other than those categories, however, the rest of the stats have little disparity between the predicted peak and the actual average. Based on this, it's fair to say that Laird's Major League performance has largely been at or near his peak level. Given that he's only 29 years old, it should be safe to assume he'll continue to post similar "peak" numbers for at least a few more years.
Conveniently, if you take the .283/.213 monthly batting splits I referenced above and weight them appropriately for a six month season, you project an average of .260, which is right in line with the projected peak and actual batting averages we just calculated Therefore, the .255 - low .260's is a safe range to expect for 2009.
As far as his power numbers, it appears that leaving Rangers Ballpark shouldn't hurt him in this regard, as his career home/road power splits are relatively equal. Unfortunately, however, he has 0 career HR in 48 AB's at Comerica Park. Without actually having seen him play, from his stats, I'd guess that Laird is more of a line drive/gap hitter that will thrive in Comerica. I don't expect more than 10-12 HR's, although 30 2B's is probably possible.
As far as speed, I don't expect him to tap the potential he showed in the Minors. Laird's Major League career high in steals is 6, and even Ivan Rodriguez never had more than 8 in any season in Detroit, a number Pudge had topped four times in his career prior to joining the Tigers. In my opinion, Leyland simply doesn't run much (or enough). The real variable I see in Laird's potential running game is the order in which Laird, Inge, and Everett/Santiago hit at the bottom of the Tigers order. If Everett/Santiago immediately follow Laird, I could see the potential to utilize his speed a bit in some hit and run situations. If Inge, however, bats immediately behind Laird, the hit and run becomes less likely due to Inge's high strikeout numbers and the extra-base threat in Curtis Granderson immediately following at the top of the order. Either way, it shouldn't drastically change the number of steals he ends up with. Personally, if I were Leyland, I'd probably hit Inge 7th (due to his power/extra base potential), Laird 8th, and Santiago/Everett 9th.
Additional Laird tidbits I dug up that are worth noting:
-Laird's career average (in 13 games) at Comerica Park is .271, while his career average at his former home ballpark, Rangers Ballpark, is just .244. In fact, his career average at all locations other than Rangers Ballpark is .266.
-Laird's career average against AL Central teams (excluding Detroit) is .303, while his his career
average against AL West teams is just .228.
-Laird has 4 HR's in 122 AB (1 HR/30.5 AB) in AL Central ballparks (excluding Comerica), as opposed to 21 HR in 1103 AB (1 HR/52.5 AB) in all other ballparks. He'll get an extra 20 or so games in these AL Central ballparks this year.
-Laird has a career .290 AVG vs. LHP but only a .240 AVG vs. RHP.
-Laird owns a .320 AVG in day games but only a .234 AVG in night games. Will this make it harder for Leyland to give him the standard day game off after a night game that most catchers get? Perhaps Ryan can play the night game before a day game, leaving Laird fresh for the day game?
-Laird has a .313 AVG on turf but only .250 AVG on grass.
Well, that's about all I've got on Laird...and based on how long it took to put this post together, I doubt you'll be seeing anything else this in depth from me in the future.
Perhaps I should go with a bit lighter subject matter next time...any suggestions?
Thursday, January 17, 2008
Get out your snowshoes...we're going to the beach!
"You'll need your winter coat tomorrow; it's going to rain."
So claimed the weatherman on the evening news earlier this week. Having lived in the Midwest for over 22 years, this puzzled me. If it were cold enough for your winter coat, shouldn't the precipitation be snow (or at least a wintry mix)? Likewise, if it were going to rain, wouldn't you want your raincoat, not your winter coat? It wouldn't surprise me if this weatherman is the person who, by some similar misstatement in the past, started the trend of using umbrellas when it snows (for more about this trend, refer to list item #3 in my December 5 post).
I've decided that if there's one thing I'll never get used to in this area, it's the weathermen and their winter forecasts. For example, the weathermen who are predicting up to 4 inches of snow today despite that:
1) it was 45 degrees yesterday
2) it isn't supposed to go below 34 at any point today
3) the snow is supposed to switch over to rain at some point this afternoon
Right, that makes perfect sense guys...
So claimed the weatherman on the evening news earlier this week. Having lived in the Midwest for over 22 years, this puzzled me. If it were cold enough for your winter coat, shouldn't the precipitation be snow (or at least a wintry mix)? Likewise, if it were going to rain, wouldn't you want your raincoat, not your winter coat? It wouldn't surprise me if this weatherman is the person who, by some similar misstatement in the past, started the trend of using umbrellas when it snows (for more about this trend, refer to list item #3 in my December 5 post).
I've decided that if there's one thing I'll never get used to in this area, it's the weathermen and their winter forecasts. For example, the weathermen who are predicting up to 4 inches of snow today despite that:
1) it was 45 degrees yesterday
2) it isn't supposed to go below 34 at any point today
3) the snow is supposed to switch over to rain at some point this afternoon
Right, that makes perfect sense guys...
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