If at first you don't succeed...

Last December (2008) I reviewed the Tigers' trade for Gerald Laird and offered some projections for his 2009 season. So, for fun, let's take a look back and see how I did.

1. Playing Time
Projection: 120 G ("Jim Leyland has always been very smart in resting his catchers")
Actual: 135 G
Result: Leyland played Laird more than I expected (and in the opinion of many, drastically overplayed him).

2. Defense
Projection: Somewhere in between Pudge (46.6%, 1 PB/18.9 G) and Inge (36.3%, 1 PB/9.6 G) throwing out runners and allowing passed balls. Not many attempted steals with Laird catching and Verlander pitching.
Actual: 41.6%, 1 PB/15 G, 23 steals attempted against the Verlander/Laird combination in 209 innings.
Result: Dead on for CS% and PB/G. 1 steal attempt/9+ innings certainly seems to qualify as "not many."

3. Batting
Projection: .255 - low .260's, 30 2B, 10-12 HR ("I don't expect Laird to hit .224 again in 2009, even if he plays 120 games")
Actual: .225, 23 2B, 4 HR
Result: Not even close. (Ironically, after 120 of the 135 games he played, Laird was hitting exactly .224.)

4. Other
While I didn't make any other projections for Laird's 2009 season, I did note several other statistical trends from Laird's past. Let's see if those trends continued:

A) Pre-2009: Career average (in 13 games) at Comerica Park: .271. Career average at former home ballpark, Rangers Ballpark: .244. Career average at all locations other than Rangers Ballpark: .266.
2009 - Comerica Park: .260. Rangers Ballpark: .125 (8 AB). All but Rangers Ballpark: .227.

B) Pre-2009: Career average against AL Central (excluding Detroit): .303. Career average against AL West teams: .228.
2009 - AL Central: .201. AL West: .253.

C) Pre-2009: 4 HR's in 122 AB (1 HR/30.5 AB) in AL Central ballparks (excluding Comerica). 21 HR in 1103 AB (1 HR/52.5 AB) in all other ballparks.
2009 - AL Central (excluding Comerica): 3 HR in 98 AB (1 HR/32.7 AB). All other ballparks (including Comerica): 1 HR in 315 AB.

D) Pre-2009: Career: .290 AVG vs. LHP. 240 AVG vs. RHP.
2009 - LHP: .248. RHP: .218.

E) Pre-2009: .320 AVG in day games. .234 AVG in night games.
2009 - Day: .255. Night: .210.

F) Pre-2009: .313 AVG on turf. .250 AVG on grass.
2009 - Turf: .167. Grass: .233.

Note: Putting all of these trends together tells us that for ideal stats (excepting power) Laird should primarily play day games in Comerica Park against non-divisional opponents featuring a LHP. Ok, so maybe that's a bit far-fetched, as that would only amount to 5-7 games/season. To be more realistic, let's put it a different way: those are 5-7 games he definitely should play.

5. Assessment
Seems as though I did pretty well predicting Laird's defensive stats and noting some statistical trends that continued into 2009, but did pretty poorly predicting his overall offensive stats.

6. Other Side of the Trade
Here's are my notes from the same post regarding the players the Tigers traded for Laird, as well as a 2009 update on each of them:

Original post: Guillermo Moscoso is the more important of the two Minor Leaguers, as he finished the year in AA this past season and has had solid stats as he has risen through the Tigers' farm system. Although it looks like he could be a decent Major League pitcher eventually, he is already 25 years old and had just made it up to AA for the first time at the end of this season, so I feel that alone made him relatively expendable.
Post-2009 update: Moscoso posted a 3.12 ERA between AA and AAA, with nearly 1 K/IP. He also appears in 10 games for the Rangers, posting a 3.21 ERA, again with nearly 1 K/IP. Moscoso looks like he could be an important piece of the Rangers bullpen over the few seasons if he continues to progress. The Tigers have plenty of young relief pitching prospects, however, so I doubt they'll miss him.

Original post: Carlos Melo is the dark horse of the trade, as he is only 17 years old and pitched for the Tigers' Dominican Summer League team in 2008. His ERA was unimpressive, but he had good strikeout numbers and didn't walk many batters for a youngster, so I wouldn't be surprised to see his ERA improve at his next stop. Even so, he probably won't be ready for the Majors for at least another 3-4 years.
Post-2009 update: Melo pitched for the Rangers Rookie league team in 2009, and to my surprise, his ERA rose nearly 40%, his walks increased about 20%, and his strikeouts dropped about 25%. Obviously, as Melo is only 18, it is still far too early to make any determinations about this piece of the trade. After his "regression" this season, my guess on his ETA in the Majors is late-2013 at the earliest.



Well, that's about it for now...time for some Contracts and Con Law homework!